Bharat Bhushan: Credible deterrence

While the chatterati is taking its bets on the next general election being a Pappu vs. Feku contest, that is “Rookie Kid” Rahul Gandhi vs. “Braggart” Narendra Modi, they may yet be surprised. There is a strong possibility that the Congress might go into the coming general election projecting Dr Manmohan Singh as its next Prime Minister. Given his self-effacing and taciturn personality, Dr Singh does not display any ambition in public. So his statement that he neither ruled himself in nor out as the prime ministerial candidate for a third term surprised many. This was Dr Singh’s second statement expressing his openness to the “hypothetical question” of a third term. It came two days after Mr Gandhi ruled out his candidature for the top job as “all smoke” in his address to the business community.

Dr Singh knows as well as the next person that he owes his position to the faith that the Nehru-Gandhi family reposes in him, and that the decision for a third term will not be his but that of Congress president Sonia Gandhi. Therefore, his statement should not be mistaken as personal hankering for office. It needs to be seen as part of a well thought-out Congress strategy in a fast-developing election scenario. Whether Dr Singh finally becomes Prime Minister for a third time or not depends on several factors, especially the election outcome. However, if there is one person in the Congress who can take on Mr Modi effectively and with least effort, it is Dr Singh.

Not only is he not a “feku” or a braggart, he is self-effacing to a fault. He may speak sparingly but his ability to puncture Mr Modi’s campaign of self-promotion should not be underestimated. Remember how he deflated L.K. Advani campaign’s in the run-up to the 2009 general election that was centered on describing Dr Singh as a weak Prime Minister? All that Dr Singh did was to remind people that the BJP’s “Iron Man” Advani as home minister had evaded responsibility for his role in releasing dreaded terrorists during the Kandahar hijacking, including Masood Azhar, who went on to set up Jaish-e-Mohammad; that Mr Advani had shed crocodile tears when the Babri Masjid was demolished and heaped praise on the founder of Pakistan Mohammad Ali Jinnah only to duck when he came under public criticism.


Mr Modi’s cupboard has far more skeletons than Mr Advani’s ever did. If Mr Modi has not already tripped himself up by his public swagger nearer the general election, the Congress would be foolish not to nuke him using Dr Singh. But he can do so only if he is not crippled by suggestions from the party that he is about to retire and is not a potential prime ministerial candidate. Dr Singh offers a more credible deterrence than anyone else in the Congress to the Modi brand of exclusivist politics or the so-called “Gujarat model”. The first Sikh Prime Minister of India is an outstanding example of inclusive politics — especially after the traumatic events of November 1984 when targeted killing of the minority Sikh community took place. His political ascendancy symbolically empowered an isolated and excluded community.

Mr Modi is also a greenhorn when it comes to talking about what the Indian economy needs — the good doctor knows better. Dr Singh has been selling the India development model to the world to unqualified applause ever since he initiated the process of economic liberalisation in 1991. A credible Dr Singh will completely outshine the “feku” from Gujarat.
Besides being an effective foil to Mr Modi, there are other advantages of Dr Singh’s candidature. He is the incumbent Prime Minister who brings with him tremendous experience as well as international goodwill. He can travel around the world as India’s leader without fear of arrest in Europe or visa denial by the United States of America for crimes against humanity. No scandals dog him as his integrity is unquestioned. Most importantly, his candidature blunts the charge of dynastic politics.


While some may claim that as Prime Minister Dr Singh has been ineffective, it could as well be argued that he did the best he could within the constraints of an unwieldy coalition. Dr Singh cannot be blamed for the slowdown in the economy — given the overall downturn in the global economy and obstacles placed in the way of economic reforms by his alliance partners, he has not done badly. Where does that leave Rahul Gandhi’s candidature, one might wonder? The young Mr Gandhi decided to become the vice-president of the party only in January 2013. His priority seems to be to reform and restructure the party — an endeavour that might take at least two to three years. He knows that the life of a Prime Minister in the era of coalition politics is barely five to ten years. He is, therefore, in no hurry. Mr Gandhi’s unwillingness to don the mantle makes Dr Singh’s candidature strong.

All political scenarios will, however, depend on the election outcome. If the Congress returns with more than 200 seats, Mr Gandhi, despite his reluctance, would have the Prime Minister’s job thrust upon him. But if the Congress gets only about 145 to 150 seats, then a different dynamic would come into play. As it is, the Congress with 206 seats in the current Lok Sabha finds it difficult to deal with its demanding allies. With a reduced strength — closer to the 146 seats that it had in 2004 — managing a coalition would become even more difficult. In such an eventuality, the party could decide that an inexperienced Mr Gandhi might not be up to the task and allies could refuse to accept his leadership. In such a scenario, the Congress will not be spoilt for choice for its prime ministerial candidate. Dr Singh’s candidature will present itself as the ideal one. Up to the time the final election tally is announced, however, the Congress position will remain ambiguous by neither ruling Dr Singh out nor in for the Prime Minister’s job.
http://www.asianage.com/columnists/credible-deterrence-443